Gold sticks to modest losses; remains close to record high amid trade war fears

• Gold price pulls back from the vicinity of the all-time peak, though the downside seems limited.
• Concerns about Trump’s trade tariffs and a global trade war should lend support to the bullion. 
• The underlying USD bearish sentiment might contribute to limiting losses for the XAU/USD pair.

Gold price (XAU/USD) sticks to its modest intraday losses through the early European session on Friday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to the all-time peak touched the previous day. Investors remain worried that US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans could trigger a global trade war, which continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. Apart from this, expectations that Trump’s protectionist policies would reignite inflation could further underpin the commodity, which is seen as a hedge against rising prices. 

Traders, however, seem reluctant to place fresh bullish bets around the Gold price amid slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart. Furthermore, a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from the lowest level since December 10 touched on Thursday and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance turned out to be key factors that prompted some profit-taking around the precious metal. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD remains on track to register gains for the eighth consecutive week and seems poised to prolong a well-established short-term uptrend. 

Gold price might continue to draw support from rising trade tensions, weaker USD

• The uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs and their impact on the global economy lifted the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high, near the $2,955 region on Thursday. 
• Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports since taking office on January 20, and also plans to announce fresh tariffs over the next month or sooner.
• Meanwhile, a softer-than-anticipated sales forecast from Walmart raised doubt over underlying economic strength amid worries that Trump’s policy moves would boost inflation and undermine consumer spending. 
• Hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine seem to have faded in the wake of intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Oil pumping stations, which could further act as a tailwind for the precious metal.
• The US Dollar languishes near its lowest level since December 10 amid bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and might turn out to be another factor that could lend support to the XAU/USD pair. 
• Fed officials, however, remain wary of future interest rate cuts amid still-sticky inflation, which, in turn, prompts some profit-taking around the non-yielding yellow metal amid slightly overbought conditions.
• St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned on Thursday that rising inflation expectations combined with the risk of stubborn stagflation could create a double challenge for the US economy.
• Earlier on Thursday, Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler said that US inflation still has some way to go to reach the central bank’s 2% target and that its path toward that goal continues to be bumpy. 
• In contrast, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic struck a more dovish tone and sees room for two more rate cuts this year, though noted that much depends on the evolving economic conditions.
• Traders now look forward to the flash PMI prints for a fresh insight into the global economic health, which, in turn, should provide some impetus to the commodity heading into the weekend.
• Apart from this, the US economic docket – featuring the release of Existing Home Sales data and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – might contribute to producing short-term opportunities.

Gold price technical setup seems tilted in favor of bulls; $2,900 mark holds the key

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to the 70 mark and warrants caution for bullish traders. That said, the recent breakout through the $2,928-2,930 horizontal barrier, representing the top boundary of a short-term trading range, suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Hence, any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $2,900 mark. This is followed by the $2,880 support, which if broken could drag the XAU/USD to the $2,860-2,855 area en route to the $2,834 zone and eventually to the $2,800 mark.

Meanwhile, bullish traders might now wait for some near-term consolidation and some follow-through buying beyond the $2,950-2,955 region before placing fresh bets. Nevertheless, the constructive setup supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past two months or so.