News & Analyses

AUD/JPY drops to near 102.00 after RBA’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged

  • AUD/JPY struggled after the RBA decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday.
  • Analysts from Commonwealth Bank and Westpac forecast that the RBA’s interest rate could have reached its peak at 4.35% in November 2023.
  • The safe-haven JPY faced challenges due to the prevalent risk appetite.

AUD/JPY trades around 102.20 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) faced a challenge after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep interest rates steady at 4.35%, as anticipated during Tuesday’s meeting. This decision is likely influenced by the recent Australian inflation data surpassing expectations last week.

Australia experienced a decline in inflation during the first quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of deceleration, despite surpassing initial forecasts. Furthermore, the country’s monthly CPI indicator surged in March, contrary to market expectations of stagnation.

Analysts at Commonwealth Bank and Westpac predict that the RBA’s interest rate might have peaked at 4.35% in November 2023, before gradually declining to 3.10% by December 2025.

Meanwhile, the risk-on sentiment persists, exerting pressure on safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen (JPY). Masato Kanda, Japan’s top currency diplomat, hinted at possible measures to address excessive market fluctuations earlier on Tuesday.

Last week, the Japanese Yen (JPY) saw appreciation amidst speculation of government intervention by Japanese authorities. Reuters reported data from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) suggesting that Japanese authorities might have allocated around ¥6.0 trillion on April 29 and ¥3.66 trillion on May 1 to bolster the JPY.


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