News & Analyses

AUD/USD gains momentum above 0.6500 ahead of Australian Retail Sales data

  • AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a stronger note near 0.6535. 
  • The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed by 2.7% YoY in March, above the market consensus of 2.6%. 
  • The firmer-than-expected Australian inflation data have triggered the RBA to delay the interest rate cut this year.

The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory for six consecutive days around 0.6535 during the early Asian session on Monday. The upward momentum of the pair is bolstered by the hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after the recent release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data last week. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be in the spotlight for this week.  

Inflation in the United States rose moderately in March, keeping the US Fed to hold the interest rate higher for longer for a while. US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, climbed to 2.7% YoY in March from 2.5% in February, above the market consensus of 2.6%, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday. Meanwhile, the Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% YoY in March, stronger than the expectation of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, both headline PCE and the core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in March.

The US central bank is expected to hold rates steady in the 5.25%–5.50% range on Wednesday. Investors anticipate the first rate cut to come in September, as recent labor market and inflation data showed a surprise on the upside.

On the Aussie front, traders increase their bets that the RBA might raise its cash rate again before it cuts. The hotter-than-anticipated Australian inflation last week erased the odds of a rate cut this year. The futures market has priced in just a 19% chance of easing at the RBA’s December meeting. The hawkish stance of the RBA boosts the Australian Dollar (AUD) and creates a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. 


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