Bitcoin halving is a few days away. Here’s what key crypto community members are saying

• Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin’s price to decline following the halving.
• Bitcoin’s fight to take reserve status intensifies as halving will drop its inflationary rate below that of Gold.
• Hashlab Mining CEO Jaran Mellerud predicts that despite the reduction in supply rate, the halving will have little effect on Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) halving is fueling increased attention around the largest digital asset on Tuesday as many crypto community members continue to share their insights on its effect in the market. Most predictions have leaned around the premise that supply reduction from the fourth halving would have minimal effect on the price movements of Bitcoin despite historical data showing otherwise.

Upcoming Bitcoin halving spurs new insights

Bitcoin is down 4.4% on Tuesday after a recent price surge that saw it briefly reclaiming the $72,000 key level. One potential reason for the move may be the anticipation of Bitcoin’s halving, barely ten days away. The upcoming halving, expected to occur around April 19 or 20, will drop Bitcoin’s inflationary rate by 50%. Generally, a significant price boost has followed previous Bitcoin halving events. The last three halving events of 2012, 2016 and 2020 saw Bitcoin recording gains above 600%.

As a result, the crypto community is hyped and bracing for the fourth halving. Despite historical gains from supply shocks that usually accompany halving events, Hashlab Mining CEO Jaran Mellurud is of the opinion that the upcoming halving will follow a different trajectory, according to a recent article he wrote on CoinDesk.

Also read: Bitcoin halving is less than two weeks away, traders likely to buy the rumor sell the news

He noted how the supply shock of Bitcoin’s issuance rate drop from 1.6% to 0.8% after the halving would appear too weak to trigger a price rally compared to previous halvings where annualized issuance reduced from 25% to 12.5% and 8.4% to 4.2% in the first and second halvings, respectively.

However, he maintained that the halving would result in a bull market driven by “increased media attention and investor enthusiasm it generates.”. Jaran stated, “This heightened awareness could stimulate demand, turning the halving into a self-fulfilling prophecy of bullish market sentiment.”

Halving discussions continue among key community members

This coincides with recent bearish predictions by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who stated that the crypto market would experience a decline in the next few weeks as the US annual tax deduction will tighten market liquidity. Hayes said, “The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs.” Hence, he advised investors to abstain from trading until May.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo has also highlighted that the drop in Bitcoin’s issuance rate will beat Gold’s 1.6%, which sees its supply double every 44 years. This could further fuel calls for Bitcoin to be used as a reserve asset similar to Gold.

Earlier reports from Glassnode and Coinbase also predict the upcoming halving may have little effect on Bitcoin’s price, considering it reached an all-time high before halving for the first time. They stated that the increased demand spurred by the Bitcoin ETF approval in January has already seen the halving effect priced into Bitcoin.

BRC-20 tokens are also receiving massive attention, as Runes, a new fungible token standard, is looking to debut the same day as the halving.