News & Analyses

Bitcoin takes back $70K despite a wide open CME gap as TradFi buy BTC from old whales

  • Bitcoin “old whales” are moving their holdings to “new whales,” mainly TradFi big-wigs such as Fidelity and BlackRock via ETFs.
  • A definitive sell-off is not confirmed, with retail playing safe by watching old whales selling or mitigating risk.
  • BTC price is less than 5% away from its ATH, rising slowly despite a standing CME gap.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading with a bullish bias but the upside potential remains capped amid increased risk in the market, with old whales selling their holdings as part of risk mitigation strategies while new whales continue to accumulate. 

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Outlook: Will $150 billion bank Morgan Stanley send BTC to new ATH?


Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs

The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. Since its inception, a total of 19,445,656 BTCs have been mined, which is the circulating supply of Bitcoin. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.

Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value. For Bitcoin, the market capitalization at the beginning of August 2023 is above $570 billion, which is the result of the more than 19 million BTC in circulation multiplied by the Bitcoin price around $29,600.

Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.

Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.

Wide open CME gap as TradFi buy Bitcoin from old whales

Bitcoin price is holding above the $70,000 threshold, with BTC holders’ eyes peeled on the $73,777 peak, which if reclaimed, could reinvigorate the uptrend. However, there appears to be a split of emotion among whales, with the old ones selling while the new ones actively buy.

According to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin “old whales” could be moving their holdings to “new whales,” mainly traditional finance big-wigs such as Fidelity and BlackRock. These two issuers pass as choice candidates given the wave of inflows reported.

Community members responding to Young Ju’s observation say that these old whales are moving their holdings as part of a risk mitigating risk. Specifically, taking out holdings from self-custody and putting them in a regulated investment vehicle such as spot BTC ETFs is a better measure of covering unexpected eventualities.

Meanwhile, analysts acknowledge that Bitcoin price continues to rise despite the presence of an open CME gap.

When a Bitcoin CME gap remains open, it means that the price at which BTC futures contracts are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) did not align with the spot price of Bitcoin. This creates a “gap” in the trading charts where the price of Bitcoin moved significantly between the closing of one trading session and the opening of the next one.

The general expectation is that these gaps are filled eventually. This means that Bitcoin price will move back to fill the gap left on the chart. Notably, however, this pullback is not guaranteed as not every gap is filled.

Bitcoin price prediction as old whales mitigate risk

Bitcoin price is moving above the supply zone that extends from $57,518 to $65,501. A decisive candlestick close above this order block on the weekly time frame could confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

If BTC price reclaims the $73,777 peak, it could encourage more buying pressure, likely sending it to the $74,000 to $75,000 range or higher.

The sustained green histograms of both the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) show a growing bullish sentiment, accentuated by the position of the MACD above the orange band of its signal line. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also recording higher highs, enhancing the bullish thesis as it signifies rising momentum while moving well above the yellow band.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

On the other hand, if traders start to cash in on the gains made so far, Bitcoin price could retract. A weekly candlestick close below the midline of the supply zone at $61,509 would encourage more sell orders, causing BTC price to fold toward the $50,000 range. 

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