News & Analyses

Could Bitcoin break out this week

  • Bitcoin price is likely to dip into the $59,111 to $53,120 imbalance, allowing sidelined buyers to accumulate.
  • A bounce from this zone could propel BTC to $80,000, a new all-time high.
  • On-chain metrics support the short-term upswing in BTC. 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors. 

Also read: Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in

Bitcoin price sets the stage for next move

Bitcoin price has been hovering above the imbalance on the weekly chart, extending from $59,111 to $53,120, failing to dip into it. As mentioned in previous forecasts, this inefficient zone is key for potential buy-the-dip orders to be triggered. To make the corrective outlook more compelling, investors can observe the set of equal lows formed just above the aforementioned imbalance’s upper limit of $59,111. 

The ideal scenario for Bitcoin price to restart its uptrend or the bullish atmosphere is to trigger a correction that sweeps the sell-side liquidity resting below $59,111 and dip into the said imbalance. Depending on the buying pressure here, the recovery rally could turn into a continuation of the bull run.

Assuming buyers step up, Bitcoin price will face resistance around the 2021 highof $69,138. If BTC manages to produce a weekly candlestick close above this level, it will mean the first higher high in the six-week consolidation that has set up three lower highs.

Such a development would not only build confidence in the crypto landscape but also restart the uptrend, potentially pushing BTC to tag the $80,000 psychological level.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin price has slipped below the 50 mean level and is attempting a comeback. The same can be said for Awesome Oscillator (AO). To be precise, the RSI’s current position looks similar to what occurred between late December 2023 and early January 2024. To conclude, although both momentum indicators are not signaling a bullish scenario yet, they are set up to flip bullish if the situation arises. 

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio currently hovers around -3.00% after recovering from -8.25% in the past few weeks. This indicator is used to determine the average profit or loss of investors who purchased BTC in the past month. 

The -3.00% suggests that investors who bought BTC in the past month are sitting at an average loss of -3.00%. Ideally, a positive value serves as a sell signal since it reveals unrealized profits. On the other hand, a negative value denotes a potential buy signal due to the unrealized losses. 

Although the MVRV has recovered safely from -10%, it still flashes a potential buy signal. As mentioned above, the technicals are forecasting a short-term drop, which could give sidelined buyers another opportunity to long.

Also read: Week Ahead: Crypto market volatility likely to come back as BTC halving looms

BTC 30-day MVRV

BTC 30-day MVRV

Additionally, the Whale Transaction Count (WTC), which tracks transfers of BTC worth $100,000 or more, showed spikes during the price dips of the ongoing consolidation. This relation clearly indicates that these large investors were moving their money to buy BTC at a discount. 



All in all, Bitcoin price looks like it will trigger a bullish breakout, but investors need to be cautious and wait patiently for a dip. On the other hand, if BTC fails to dip into the $59,111 to $53,120 imbalance, it means that smart money is likely trying to trap early bulls by kick-starting a quick bounce.

If Bitcoin price produces a weekly candlestick close below $53,120, the lower limit of the imbalance zone, it would create a lower low and confirm the persistence of the downtrend. Such a development would invalidate the bullish outlook and potentially lead prices to fall 15% towards the next key support level at $45,156.

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