Democrats move to clamp down on election betting platforms, should Polymarket users be afraid?

• Democrats moved for the CFTC to ban election gambling.
• The move came after crypto prediction platform Polymarket hit $1 billion in betting volume.
• Approval of a ban on election betting might hamper Polymarket’s impact and reduce gains.

Polymarket has seen a surge in trading volume since July as investors’ interest in the presidential election speculation has soared. With the hike in election gambling, Democrats moved to enforce a ban on election betting on Monday.

Polymarket draws Democrat attention amid surge in prediction volume

Senator Elizabeth Warren, along with several other Democrats, have combined forces to clamp down on election gambling regarding the upcoming presidential and senate elections. The legislators drafted a letter calling on the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to ban all kinds of electoral wagers to ensure decency in the election process.

The letter highlights some of the underlying effects of gambling on the sincerity of the election process and voters’ choices. It suggests that such practices may reduce voters’ trust in the elections.

“Allowing billionaires to wager extraordinary bets while simultaneously contributing to a specific candidate or party, and political insiders to bet on elections using non-public information, will further degrade public trust in the electoral process,” the letter states.

The upcoming elections have garnered much attention in the crypto industry over the last few months. This is evidenced by Republican nominee Donald Trump’s pro-crypto activities and President Joe Biden’s recent withdrawal from the November presidential elections.

Although the letter does not directly mention any betting platform, the unusual success of the decentralized prediction market Polymarket has been considered by many to be the major cause of the legislative move. 

Dune analytics dashboard by @petertherock shows that Polymarket has witnessed increased prediction volumes over the past month, surging over $1 billion by the end of July — an outrageous growth from its $111 million and $63 million volume in June and May, respectively.

The milestone is largely a result of the growing intensity of the presidential elections. This includes an assassination attempt on Republican nominee Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’ ascent as Democrat nominee. 

Polymarket data revealed that nearly $430 million of its prediction volume is wagered on the outcome of the November elections.

The platform has also become one of the most visited in the crypto market, surpassing Uniswap, dYdX, and other DeFi platforms with over 295K daily visits, according to data posted by @NTmoney on X.

A successful ban on election betting could negatively impact Polymarket, which has previously faced regulatory issues regarding its services.