- EUR/GBP softens to around 0.8530 in Friday’s early European session.
- The UK Retail Sales rose 0.4% MoM in March vs. -0.4% expected.
- Investors will closely watch the US-UK trade talks as the UK Finance Minister is scheduled to meet the US Treasury Secretary on Friday.
The EUR/GBP cross loses momentum to near 0.8530 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) after the stronger-than-expected UK economic data.
Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday that the UK Retail Sales increased 0.4% MoM in March versus a rise of 0.7% prior (revised from 1.0%). This figure came in above the market consensus of a decline of 0.4%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales jumped 2.6% in March compared to a rise of 2.2% prior, better than the estimation of 1.8%. The GBP attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the upbeat UK Retail Sales data.
On the Euro’s front, the dovish remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers drag the shared currency lower. ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn said on Thursday that the central bank should not rule out a “larger interest rate cut”. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said on Wednesday that the central bank may have to lower interest rates to levels that stimulate the economy if trade uncertainty proves more damaging to growth.
Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-UK trade talks. UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is scheduled to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday. High on the agenda will be a possible trade deal, which Britain hopes will reduce the hit from Trump’s import tariffs to its exporters of goods, including cars and steel. Reeves said on Thursday she was confident Britain could reach a trade deal with the US. However, the lack of clarity of trade policy could weigh on the GBP and create a tailwind for EUR/GBP.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
