- EUR/USD printed flat on Thursday as markets recover balance.
- Investors are refocusing on rate cut expectations.
- EU GDP, US CPI inflation prints due next week.
EUR/USD went nowhere fast on Thursday, testing the 1.0900 handle before wrapping up the day’s action close to where it started. Fiber flubbed a swing for the 1.1000 handle earlier this week, and momentum has drained out of the pair as investors continue to cool off after a surge of panic after last Friday’s misfire in US labor data.
Forex Today: Market turbulence dissipates
Friday is set to wrap up the trading week with little of note on the economic data docket and investors pivoting once more to keeping an eye out for signs the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be pushed into a rate cutting cycle in the next six weeks.
At the current cut, rate traders are pricing in roughly two-to-one odds of a 50-basis-point rate trim from the Fed on September 18, with a further two cuts expected through the rest of 2024. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate probabilities see an 83% chance of the Fed’s benchmark fed funds rate hitting 425-450 basis points by the end of December.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 printed at 233K, less than the forecast 240K and easing back from the previous week’s 250K. Cooling initial unemployment figures are helping investors keep a lid on recent downturn fears after last week’s US labor data dump sparked a firm risk-off bid.
US data watchers will be on the lookout for a fresh round of producer and consumer-level inflation figures due next week. US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation is slated for next Tuesday, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation on the books for next Wednesday. Euro traders will also be looking out for a pan-EU update to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers slated for early Wednesday, which are expected to hold steady in the second quarter at 0.3% MoM and 0.6% YoY.
EUR/USD technical outlook
Fiber continues to trade on the high side of a rough descending channel that has weighed on EUR/USD for the duration of 2024. The pair is holding just outside of recent technical ceiling barriers, but bullish momentum remains crimped below 1.1000.
A rising pattern of higher lows is solidifying on daily candlesticks, but EUR/USD is still poised for another dip back into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0800.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
