News & Analyses

EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.0750 after hawkish remarks from a Fed official

  • EUR/USD continues to lose ground due to the hawkish sentiment of the Fed prolonging elevated policy rates.
  • Fed’s Kashkari said that the most likely scenario is for interest rates to stay unchanged for an extended period.
  • Eurozone Retail Sales marked the most significant increase in March since September 2022, indicating strength in the consumer sector.

EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.0750 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) gains ground due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) prolonging higher interest rates. However, the softer US labor data from the last week has reignited hopes for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024.

On Tuesday, hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari have bolstered the US Dollar, consequently weakening the EUR/USD pair. Kashkari said that the most probable scenario is for rates to remain unchanged for an extended period. However, if disinflation returns or a significant weakening in the job market occurs, rate cuts could be considered. While raising rates is not the most likely outcome, it cannot be entirely ruled out, as per a Reuters report.

On Monday, Bloomberg reported Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin saying that increasing interest rates would probably limit economic growth in the United States (US). However, Barkin noted that higher interest rates would assist in curbing inflationary pressures, bringing them into closer alignment with the central bank’s 2% target.

In the Eurozone, Retail Sales (MoM) surged by 0.8% in March, rebounding from the upwardly revised 0.3% decline in February. This exceeded the expected increase of 0.6%. It marked the most significant increase in retail activity since September 2022, indicating strength in the European consumer sector. Additionally, Retail Sales (YoY) increased by 0.7% compared to the revised 0.5% drop in February. This indicates the first growth in retail since September 2022, signaling a positive shift in consumer spending trends.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to begin reducing borrowing costs in June. As reported by the Business Standard, Chief Economist Philip Lane of the ECB said that recent data have strengthened his belief that inflation is edging closer to the 2% target. While many ECB officials appear to support easing measures next month, President Christine Lagarde has not suggested further cuts at this point.


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