- EUR/USD climbs 0.68% as ISM data shows US manufacturing remains in contraction.
- Trump’s renewed tariff threats on China and metals drive investors away from the Greenback.
- EU’s Sefcovic to meet USTR Greer in Paris amid escalating transatlantic trade tensions.
EUR/USD edges up during the North American session to hit a six-week high of 1.1449, poised to stay above 1.1400 as the US Dollar drops to levels last seen in April as the “Sell America” trade continues. Arising trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, as well as the Eurozone (EU), prompted investors to favor the Greenback with the Euro posting gains of over 0.68%.
Recently, economic data in the US revealed that business activities in the manufacturing sector remained in contractionary territory, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
Last week, US President Donald Trump revealed that China had violated its agreement with Switzerland. Consequently, he threatens to impose 50% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, effective on June 4, sparking a flight to safe-haven assets, except the US Dollar.
Beijing responded to Washington’s accusations as “groundless and threatened to respond with forceful measures.”
In other trade news, EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is to meet USTR Greer in Paris on Wednesday, according to a spokesperson.
The EU’s economic schedule featured the release of the HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May, with most readings coming mixed, with only Spain showing signs of expansion.
EUR/USD daily market movers: Euro extended rally past 1.1400, eyes on 1.1450
- ISM Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.5 in May from 48.7, marking the lowest reading since November. The Prices Index remained in expansion at 69.4%, while the Employment Index continued in contraction, improving slightly from 46.5 to 46.8.
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI stayed in expansion but slipped to 52.0 from 52.3 in April.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller has shifted to a more dovish stance. He stated that rate cuts remain possible later this year but warned that policymakers are mainly focused on controlling inflation.
- Eurozone May’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI remained in recessionary territory, down at 49.4, though it’s the fifth straight monthly gain and the highest in almost three years. Germany’s Manufacturing PMI revised down to 48.3 from 48.8, underscoring continued weakness in the region’s largest economy.
- EUR/USD traders would have to digest a busy economic schedule in the upcoming week. In the EU, the docket will feature inflation figures, the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, and ECB’s President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. In the US, investors are eyeing the release of Nonfarm Payroll figures, the ISM Services PMI, and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) speakers.
- Financial market players had fully priced in the expectation that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2% at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD surpasses key resistance levels, buyers target 1.1500
EUR/USD uptrend remains intact, as indicated by the daily chart; however, the trend appears overextended unless buyers reclaim higher prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, indicating that buyers are in control. However, the ECB’s looming monetary policy decision, with expectations for a rate cut, could pave the way for a retracement.
If EUR/USD climbs past 1.1450, this could open the door to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) peak hit on April 21 at 1.1573. Instead, if the shared currency weakens and falls below 1.1400, the first support would be 1.1350. A breach of it, will expose 1.13 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1277.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
