- Amberdata’s director of Derivatives is bullish on Solana and the growth of meme coin sector in 2025.
- Greg Magadini believes Ethereum could face headwinds and struggle, upside potential is likely to be muted.
- Solana could see an official update on a spot-based ETF in the US following President Trump’s favor and meme coin launch.
Greg Magadini is the director of Derivatives at Amberdata, a digital asset data and insights platform. FXStreet interviewed Magadini and gathered his insights on the Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives market, sentiment, shifting tide on the Solana blockchain, the future of meme coins and his comments for forex traders building a crypto portfolio.
Q. As Bitcoin slips under $105,000, the crypto trader community is concerned about the Bitcoin price trend. What are your comments and insights from BTC derivatives markets?
“One of the most interesting aspects of this market is its ability to price in significant volatility around major events, such as the inauguration. Leading up to the event, volatility surged from around 65% to over 100%, but it has since retraced significantly. This suggests that the options market was anticipating a major move. However, while there was some intraday volatility, the overall price action remained relatively subdued.
Looking ahead, the options market’s outlook for Bitcoin over the next year is also intriguing. For instance, the December 2025 options expiration currently reflects a 15% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $210,000 by the end of the year. This provides insight into how the market is assessing the likelihood of a 100% gain in Bitcoin’s value.
In terms of current positioning, there’s notable activity among traders. Bullish investors are actively purchasing call options in the $106,000 to $120,000 range, indicating their expectations for potential upside within this price band. On the other hand, bearish traders are securing downside protection with put options below the $95,000 level.”
Q. Do you think Ethereum can catch up with Bitcoin’s price gain in the first half of 2025? What is the outlook on Ethereum derivatives?
“Ethereum is currently facing significant headwinds, and traders in the derivatives market are not as bullish on it as they once were. Most Ethereum options buyers are targeting the $3,300 to $3,900 range, but there is little interest in buying above the $4,000 level in the short to medium term.
There are a few key reasons behind this cautious outlook. The first major issue is EIP-1559, which introduced the “ultrasound money” narrative that every transaction would burn a portion of Ethereum’s supply. However, with the rise of Layer 2 solutions and increasing activity shifting to these networks, the transaction burn is no longer flowing through to Ethereum’s Layer 1.
As a result, the supply inflation of Ethereum is not being offset as initially intended. This shift has altered Ethereum’s long-term outlook from a deflationary asset to an inflationary one, which negatively impacts its present value—posing a major challenge.
The second issue is internal conflict within the Ethereum Foundation and its leadership. There have been growing calls for change, with some suggesting that Vitalik Buterin should step aside or that a board should be appointed to oversee the project. This leadership uncertainty and lack of clear direction are contributing to market hesitation.
Lastly, the recent meme coin launch associated with Donald Trump highlighted a shifting preference in the crypto landscape. Although Trump holds Ethereum in his wallet, the meme coin itself was launched on Solana. This has fueled speculation that US-based crypto interests might favor Solana, leading to a noticeable increase in Solana options buying since the launch.
These three challenges—Ethereum’s evolving inflationary dynamics, leadership uncertainties, and shifting market sentiment toward Solana—are expected to continue influencing the market throughout 2025.”
Q. What is the impact of US macroeconomic releases on Bitcoin price, as BTC’s correlation with equities rises?
“I think there’s a slight difference between a short-term and a long-term trade. In my view, Bitcoin’s macro relationship is very similar to that of gold. Over the long term, inflationary pressure tends to be bullish for gold. However, in the short term, factors like Federal Reserve policy pivots impact the cost of funding. When interest rates rise, gold—being a non-yielding asset—faces a higher opportunity cost. The same phenomenon applies to Bitcoin.
We saw this dynamic play out in December with the hawkish rate cut, where the Fed’s guidance pushed gold, equities, and Bitcoin lower. That said, over the past 12 months, both gold and Bitcoin have experienced significant rallies.
I believe the long-term structural trends for both assets remain intact. If inflation persists, we might see short-term sell-offs when the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance. However, over the long run, I view gold and Bitcoin as solid stores of value. In contrast, if inflation declines and the Fed turns more dovish, that shift could be bullish for both gold and Bitcoin in the short term. But in that scenario, the long-term inflation hedge narrative may weaken.”
Q. As optimism increases on new policies and pro-crypto regulation in the US, do you think the outlook on Ethereum ETFs can improve, any comments on the likelihood of a Solana Spot ETF in 2025?
“Yes, I do think so. I believe VanEck applied for a Solana ETF in 2024, and I think that narrative will resurface. The biggest hurdle is the ongoing debate over whether Solana should be classified as a security or a commodity.
If we have a more crypto-friendly SEC, I could see an easier path to approval.
Of course, Bitcoin and Ethereum already exist in the ETF space, but Solana—being a Layer 1 blockchain—and potentially even something like XRP, which isn’t necessarily a smart contract chain but still a base layer network, are gaining renewed attention. I could definitely see that happening.
Additionally, a more favorable regulatory environment could usher in a new era of corporate meme coins. We’ve already seen meme coins like TRUMP and MELANIA launch on Solana, but imagine if major corporations, such as Boeing Airlines, decided to release their own meme coins. This could open up new opportunities for corporate adoption of blockchain technology. I’m not exactly sure what that would look like, but the door has certainly been opened for it.”
Q. Whether Ethereum will follow Bitcoin’s growth or will take its own direction this year? Is the upcoming Pectra upgrade a significant one?
“My understanding of the Pectra upgrade is that one of the most exciting aspects is the ability to program your wallet like a smart contract, essentially providing obfuscation of transaction details—making it difficult to determine who is sending what. I find that particularly interesting. However, it seems like a highly technical upgrade, whereas the market right now is being driven more by hype and cultural events rather than developer-focused advancements.
Ethereum continues to lead in terms of technical design and EVM execution. Even on Solana, we’re seeing the ability to execute EVM code, which reinforces Ethereum’s dominance. That’s also why Layer 2 solutions are being built on Ethereum. That said, I don’t see this upgrade as revolutionary in terms of shifting the broader narrative; rather, it enhances functionality for developers. In my view, it falls in line with other incremental technical improvements.”
Q. Will Ethereum’s correlation with Bitcoin increase or decrease? Will it continue to follow Bitcoin’s lead?
“I believe that from a pure correlation perspective, Ethereum will likely remain correlated with the broader market. The market tends to drive all cryptocurrencies up or down simultaneously. However, from a beta standpoint, I expect Ethereum’s beta to decrease over time.
Given the current headwinds facing Ethereum, its upside potential will likely be more muted, leading to underperformance. This underperformance may also make downside sell-offs appear less volatile, as much of the performance bleed will have already occurred. Overall, I anticipate a drag on performance.”
Q. What are your comments for forex traders building a crypto portfolio this year?
“My final comment is for forex traders: the cost of carry is a significant factor in forex trading. In crypto, the cost of carry—specifically the funding basis for perpetuals—is an important aspect to consider, especially because it tends to correlate with price movements.
As prices rise, funding rates increase; when prices fall, funding rates decrease. This dynamic creates a more volatile derivatives market, which must be factored into options pricing. Traders should pay close attention to this component when analyzing the market.”
