News & Analyses

Gold bulls move to the sidelines as focus shifts to the crucial FOMC policy meeting

  • Gold price ticks lower on Monday amid hawkish Fed expectations and a positive risk tone.
  • A modest USD downtick helps limit the downside amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
  • Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the FOMC meeting and key US macro data this week.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two trading days and edges lower on the first day of a new week, albeit the downside remains cushioned. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates were reaffirmed by the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which, pointed to still sticky inflation. Adding to this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets turns out to be key factors undermining demand for the safe-haven precious metal.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) meets with a fresh supply and reverses Friday’s modest recovery gains from a two-week low amid a sharp recovery in the Japanese Yen (JPY), bolstered by a possible government intervention. Furthermore, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war keeps geopolitical risks in play and contributes to limiting the downside for the Gold price. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday and key US macro data scheduled at the start of a new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains depressed amid hawkish Fed expectations, positive risk tone

  • The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in March, while the yearly rate climbed to 2.7% from 2.5% in February, beating estimates for a reading of 2.6%.
  • Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% as compared to 2.6% anticipated, reaffirming hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and exerting pressure on the non-yielding Gold price. 
  • Further, Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo fuel optimism about the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which further boosts investors’ appetite for riskier assets and contributes to driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal. 
  • That said, Ukraine attacked more Russian oil refineries over the weekend and also called on more military aid from the US over worsening conditions on the front lines, keeping geopolitical risks in play and lending support to the XAU/USD. 
  • Apart from this, evidence that inflation in the US is not easing as initially expected should act as a tailwind for the metal, which is seen as a hedge against inflation, ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday.
  • Investors this week will also confront the release of important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. 

Technical Analysis: Gold price could weaken further once the $2,320 pivotal support is broken decisively

From a technical perspective, last week’s bounce from levels below the $2,300 mark faced rejection near the $2,352-2,353 confluence comprising the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the all-time peak and the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). The subsequent downfall, however, showed some resilience below the 100-hour SMA and stalled near the $2,320 area (23.6% Fibo. level), which should now act as a key pivotal point. A sustained break below could make the Gold price vulnerable to retesting last week’s swing low, around the $2,292-2,291 region, before dropping to the next relevant support near the $2,268-2,265 zone. 

On the flip side, bulls need to wait for a move beyond the $2,352-2,353 confluence hurdle before placing fresh bets. The Gold price might then accelerate the positive move towards the next relevant hurdle near the $2,371-2,372 region en route to the $2,400 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the all-time peak, around the $2,431-2,432 area touched earlier this month.


Source link

News & Analyses Analyses