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Gold corrects back after US data shows pessimism mixed with inflation fears

  • Gold falls after US Consumer Sentiment data shows a sharp decline in optimism and higher inflation expectations. 
  • Higher inflation could keep interest rates elevated, reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding Gold. 
  • Uptrending XAU/USD corrects back and puts pressure on a key support level. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) corrects back, falling a half a percent to the $2,340s on Monday after US Consumer Sentiment data suggested interest rates may remain higher for longer, reducing Gold’s attractiveness as a non-yielding asset. 

Gold price falls after Michigan Sentiment Survey data

Gold price has reversed lower following the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday, which showed a surprise fall in sentiment whilst at the same time higher inflation expectations. 

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for May fell to 67.4 from 77.2 when economists had expected a much gentler decline to 76.0. 

At the same time, the long-run inflation expectations component rose to 3.1% from 3.0% previously. 

Higher inflation expectations suggest the Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue to delay its expected move to cut interest rates. This is negative for Gold since higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold compared to interest-yielding assets like bonds or cash. 

Technical Analysis: Gold price corrects sharply back

Gold price (XAU/USD) is correcting back after its rally at the start of May. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator moved into neutral territory during the US session on Friday after being overbought, giving a sell signal, and price responded accordingly. 

Gold has reached a major support level from previous highs at $2,350, which it is attempting to pierce through. If it is successful it could continue to fall. 

XAU/USD 4-hour Chart

Despite the pull back the short-term trend is still probably bullish, suggesting it is likely the precious metal will stop correcting at some point and resume its uptrend. There are no signs yet of this happening however. 

Assuming the uptrend does resume, the next target for Gold would be at around $2,400, roughly at the height of the April highs. A break back above the $2,378 May 10 high would provide confirmation. 

The medium and long-term charts (daily and weekly) are also bullish, adding a supportive backdrop for Gold. 

Economic Indicator

Last release: Fri May 10, 2024 14:00 (Prel)

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: 3.1%


Previous: 3%

Source: University of Michigan


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