News & Analyses

Gold price remains on the defensive on a firmer US Dollar

  • Gold price extends its decline amid the renewed USD demand on Wednesday. 
  • Investors place lower bets on the potential Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. 
  • The Fed’s (Fed) Philip Jefferson, Susan Collins, and Lisa Cook are scheduled to speak later on Wednesday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers on the firmer US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials dampen hopes for potential interest rate cuts in 2024 despite weaker-than-expected US employment reports in April. Nonetheless, safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, as well as ongoing central bank purchases, might contribute to a rally in gold.

Later on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Philip Jefferson,  Susan Collins, and Lisa Cook are set to speak. The hawkish remarks from the Fed policymakers might lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated gold. Gold traders will monitor the consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan on Friday. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price edges lower after Fed’s comments

  • Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that it is too early to declare that inflation has stalled out, and the Fed might cut interest rates this year if price pressures ease.
  • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the current level of interest rates is restrictive enough to cool the economy and bring inflation back to the 2% target.
  • Financial markets are now pricing in nearly 50 basis points (bps) of rate cuts from the Fed this year, including a 65.7% odds of a rate cut of at least 25 bps in September, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
  • The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on Friday, which is estimated to drop from 77.2 in April to 76.0 in May.
  • Israeli troops launched strikes on Gaza’s southernmost city. Even though Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal on Monday, Israel said the conditions did not meet its demands, as per the New York Times. 
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 60,000 troy ounces of gold to its reserves in April, extending the period of consecutive purchases to 18 months. 

Technical Analysis: Gold price maintains a constructive stance in the longer term

The gold price trades softer on the day. However, the positive outlook of the yellow metal in the longer term remains unchanged as XAU/USD is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with an upward slope. 

In the near term, the gold price has been stuck within a descending trend channel since mid-April. The modest bearish stance is confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which holds below the 50 midline. 

The $2,300 psychological round figure will be the first downside target for XAU/USD. Any follow-through selling below this level will expose the lower limit of a descending trend channel at $2,260. A bearish breakout of the mentioned level will pave the way to a low of April 1 at $2,228, followed by the $2,200 round mark. 

On the upside, the immediate barrier will emerge near a high of May 6 at $2,232. The next hurdle is located near the confluence of the upper boundary of a descending trend channel and a high of April 26 at the $2,350–$2,355 region. The additional upside filter to watch is the $2,400 round mark, en route to an all-time high near $2,432. 

US Dollar price today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USD   0.08% 0.09% 0.13% 0.22% 0.29% 0.12% 0.06%
EUR -0.09%   0.01% 0.03% 0.14% 0.20% 0.04% -0.02%
GBP -0.09% -0.01%   0.03% 0.13% 0.20% 0.03% -0.04%
CAD -0.12% -0.04% -0.02%   0.10% 0.16% 0.00% -0.06%
AUD -0.22% -0.14% -0.13% -0.09%   0.06% -0.10% -0.18%
JPY -0.27% -0.20% -0.21% -0.17% -0.05%   -0.14% -0.24%
NZD -0.12% -0.04% -0.03% 0.01% 0.10% 0.17%   -0.07%
CHF -0.05% 0.02% 0.04% 0.07% 0.17% 0.24% 0.07%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.


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