News & Analyses

Have not yet seen signs that inflation is actually on track

Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin hit newswires for a second time on Monday as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member gave his outlook on economic conditions in the US while taking audience questions during a speech in South Carolina.

Key highlights:

  • Business contacts suggest labor market is normalizing, though some sectors are still catching up.
  • Neutral rate metrics have moved up, but current policy still feels restrictive.
  • Believes that current rates are restrictive enough.
  • Barkin feels the risks are weighted towards more inflation.
  • It takes a while to corral price-setters.
  • Recent data is a stubborn read, less optimistic about how long it will take to get inflation under control.
  • Imagines Fed will need to take some edge off of demand to finally finish inflation fight.
  • Barkin has not yet seen evidence that inflation is on track.
  • GDP growth still seems strong, Fed is now focusing on job market.

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