News & Analyses

NZD/USD plummets to its lowest level since November, seems vulnerable while below 0.6000

  • A combination of factors drags the NZD/USD pair to a fresh YTD trough on Thursday.
  • Rising bets for a rate cut by RBNZ in July weigh on the Kiwi amid a softer risk tone.
  • Sustained USD buying exerts additional pressure and contributes to the ongoing slide.

The NZD/USD pair comes under heavy selling pressure on Thursday and continues losing ground through the first half of the European session. The downward trajectory drags spot prices to the 0.5970-0.5965 region, or the lowest level since November 17, and is sponsored by a combination of factors.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens after the business outlook survey by ANZ Bank showed weakening activity indicators and a slight fall in inflation pressures. Moreover, markets are pricing in an almost 50% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could cut rates as early as July. This, along with a fresh bout of the US Dollar (USD) buying, turn out to be key factors exerting downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, climbs to over a one-month peak in the wake of Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish comments on Wednesday, which tempered rate cut bets. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a softer risk tone, is seen benefitting the safe-haven buck and driving flows away from the risk-sensitive Kiwi.

With the latest leg down, the NZD/USD pair now seems to have confirmed a breakdown through the weekly trading range and the 0.6000 psychological mark. This, in turn, favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. market participants now look to the US economic docket – featuring the final Q4 GDP print, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales and revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.


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