News & Analyses

NZD/USD refreshes daily low on weaker Chinese trade data, sustained USD buying

  • A combination of factors prompts fresh selling around NZD/USD on Friday.
  • Reduced Fed rate cut bets and geopolitical tensions lift the USD to YTD top.
  • Weaker Chinese trade data drives flow away from antipodean currencies.

The NZD/USD pair meets with a fresh supply on Friday and drops to a fresh daily low following the release of weaker Chinese trade data during the early European session. Spot prices reverse the previous day’s modest recovery gains and currently trade near the lower end of the weekly range, around the 0.5970-0.5975 region.

Data published by the Customs General Administration of China showed that exports declined sharply, by the 7.5% YoY rate in March as compared to the 3.0% fall expected and the 7.1% growth registered in the January-February period. Adding to this, imports fell by the 1.9% YoY rate during the reported month against the 1.2% rise anticipated and the 3.5% previous. This points to weak global as well as domestic demand and adds to concerns about recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, which, in turn, undermines antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. 

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, gains strong follow-through positive traction and hits a fresh YTD peak in the wake of expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates amid sticky inflation. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions turn out to be another factor benefiting the safe-haven buck, which, in turn, is seen exerting downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. The fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside and any attempted recovery is likely to get sold into. 

Market participants now look forward to the release of the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand later during the early North American session and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register weekly losses, though manage to hold above the YTD trough, around the 0.5940 region touched last week.


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