News & Analyses

NZD/USD sticks gains near mid-0.5900s, over one-week high amid positive risk tone

  • NZD/USD gains positive traction for the third straight day amid a softer USD.
  • Tuesday’s disappointing US PMIs and a positive risk tone undermine the buck.
  • Reduced Fed rate cut bets should help limit the USD losses and cap the major.

The NZD/USD pair attracts follow-through buying for the third successive day on Wednesday and climbs to over a one-week high, around mid-0.5900s during the Asian session amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness. 

Weaker US PMI prints released on Tuesday indicated that the economic upturn lost momentum at the start of the second quarter. Furthermore, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets and undermines the safe-haven buck, which, in turn, is seen benefitting the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations help limit the downside for the USD and keep a lid on the NZD/USD pair. 

Market participants now seem convinced that the Fed is unlikely to begin its rate-cutting cycle in June and have also scaled back their expectations about the total number of rate cuts in 2024 to less than two, or around 40 basis points. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and is likely to act as a tailwind for the Greenback. This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the NZD/USD pair and cap the upside.

Investors now look forward to the release of the US Durable Goods Orders for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the Advance US Q1 GDP print and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively. This will influence market expectations about the Fed’s future policy decisions, which will drive the USD demand and help in determining the near-term trajectory for the NZD/USD pair.


Source link

News & Analyses Analyses