News & Analyses

The next contention level is seen at 1.0720, oversold RSI condition eyed

  • EUR/USD faces some sell-off around 1.0730 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
  • The major pair holds below the key EMA with an oversold RSI condition.
  • The first downside target is located at 1.0720; the 1.0800–1.0805 region acts as an immediate resistance level. 

The EUR/USD pair extends its downside to 1.0730, the weekly low during the early European session on Tuesday. The upbeat US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March lifts the US Dollar (USD) and drags the EUR/USD pair lower. Investors will take more cues from Fedspeak later on Tuesday, including Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, John Williams, and Mary Daly. 

Technically, EUR/USD maintains the bearish outlook unchanged as the major pair is below the 50- and 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart, which means the path of least resistance level is to the downside. It’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bearish territory around 28. However, the oversold RSI condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/USD depreciation.

The key contention level will emerge near the confluence of the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and a low of February 13 at 1.0720. Any follow-through selling below the latter will see a drop to a low of November 9, 2023, at 1.0660, followed by a low of November 2, 2023, at 1.0565. 

On the upside, the 50-period EMA and a high of March 29 at the 1.0800-1.0805 zone act as an immediate resistance level for EUR/USD. The additional upside filter to watch is the 100-period EMA at 1.0822. The next hurdle is seen near a high of March 26 at 1.0864. 

EUR/USD four-hour chart


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