- USD steady course remains unaffected by geopolitical tensions despite the lack of substantial fundamentals.
- Fed officials maintain positive projections of the US labor markets amid looming concerns of slow job growth.
- The market maintains the previous week’s predictions; the first rate cut is anticipated in September with marginally lower odds.
The US Dollar (USD), measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), indicated continuous horizontal movement above the 103.00 level during Monday’s trading session. This follows relatively quiet market sentiment and unaltered US stock index futures, with the 10-year US yield sticking close to 4% in the earlier part of the day.
Though market expectations for upcoming monetary policy decisions remain the same, the US economic outlook continues to suggest growth above trend, insinuating a potential overestimation of the market for aggressive easing in the future.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar stability persists ahead of inflation figures
- Market trends from the previous week transition smoothly into the current week. JPY and CHF underperformed on Monday, although global bond yields and equity markets are slightly boosted.
- Due to the lack of significant data releases on Monday, markets are upholding last week’s trends while watching for important US data releases slated for this week, including PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales data.
- The market is still fully pricing in 100 bps of easing by year-end, extending to 175-200 bps of total easing over the next 12 months.
- However, this easing path seems unlikely unless the US economy sinks into a deep recession. More data is required to redirect this dovish narrative.
DXY technical outlook: Bearish bias persists amid continuous buyer efforts
DXY’s technical outlook remains bearish, with buyers struggling to evolve a significant move. The index retains its position beneath the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), conforming to a predominantly bearish bias. The momentum-based Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues its position below 50, suggesting consistent selling pressure. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative terrain, showing lower red bars. Despite the week’s gains, the overall technical outlook has not significantly improved, suggesting the continuous possibility for a correction.
Support Levels: 103.00, 102.50, 102.20.
Resistance Levels: 103.50, 104.00.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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