News & Analyses

US Dollar retreats from fresh March high on Jobless Claims stealing the thunder from upbeat GDP

  • The US Dollar extends its rally to a three-day winning streak. 
  • Traders are diving into the Greenback on Fed’s Waller hawkish tilt. 
  • The US Dollar Index jumps to a new high for March. 

The US Dollar (USD) retreats from its earlier fresh highs for March after the Greenback rallied on comments from Fed Board Member Christopher Waller who pulled the plug on a June interest-rate cut. The Greenback is rolling through the markets and is up against every major G20 peer. Markets are heading into the direction of fewer and later rate cuts while the economy and inflation flair up.

The very packed economic calendar for this Thursday is leaving its marks with the Continuing claims contradicting the upbeat US Gross Domestic Product print. This makes traders nervous with data points diverging and not painting a clear picture. More data to come with the Unversity of Michigan numbers and Purchase Managers Index from Chicago.

Daily digest market movers: No clear signal

  • The first batch of data has been released:
    • The US Gross Domestic Product final reading for Q4:
      • Headline GDP went from 3.2% to 3.4%.
      • The GDP Price Index  remained unchanged at 1.7%.
      • Core Personal Consumption Expenditures retreated a touch from 2.1% to 2%.
    • This week’s Jobless Claims:
      • Initial Claims remained stable at 211,000.
      • Continuing Claims jumped higher to 1.819 million, coming from 1.795 million. 
  • The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for March is expected to head from 44 to 46 at 13:45 GMT.
  • At 14:00 GMT, the final reading for the University of Michigan for March will come out:
  • Consumer Sentiment is expected to remain unchanged at 76.5.
  • Consumer Inflation expectations will remain stable as well at 2.9%.
  • The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for March will be released at 15:00 GMT, and was previously at 3. No forecast is available.
  • US equities are trading flat still in the aftermath of the US GDP and Jobless claims print. 
  • According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations for the Fed’s May 1 meeting are at 94.8% for keeping the fed funds rate unchanged, while chances of a rate cut are at 5.2%.
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.21%, up from 4.18% earlier this week. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Tainted view

The US Dollar Index (DXY) got fired up by Fed’s Waller overnight after the official pushed back against June rate cut expectations and obliterated any hopes for cuts from the US Federal Reserve before the summer. US Dollar bulls chased the DXY higher on the back of it, which results in a fresh high for March and the February highs are coming into reach now. Should the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index bear a red hot inflation label again, expect for the DXY to quickly reach 105.00 and higher. 

That first pivotal level for the DXY at 104.60 has been broken, where last week’s rally peaked.  Further up, 104.96 remains the level to beat in order to tackle 105.00. Once above there, 105.12 is the last resistance point for now before the Relative Strength Index (RSI) will trade in overbought levels. 

Support from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.75, the 100-day SMA at 103.48, and the 55-day SMA at 103.72 are unable to show their importance as support because traders didn’t wait for a drop to those levels for a turnaround. The 103.00 big figure looks to remain unchallenged for longer, after the decline in the wake of the Fed meeting last week got turned around way before reaching it. 


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