News & Analyses

USD/CAD sticks to modest recovery gains, remains below 1.3700 ahead of US data

  • USD/CAD rebounds from a two-week low and draws support from a combination of factors.
  • Weaker Oil prices undermine the Loonie and act as a tailwind amid renewed USD buying.
  • Traders look forward to important US macro releases before placing fresh directional bets.

The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers in the vicinity of mid-1.3600s, or a two-week low touched earlier this Wednesday and for now, seems to have snapped a five-day losing streak. Spot prices stick to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trade near the 1.3675-1.3680 region or the top end of the daily range.

Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish rebound from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support amid easing geopolitical tensions and concerns about slowing economic growth in China. This, along with expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates in the summer amid declining inflation and slower economic growth, is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair amid the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying.

Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to begin cutting interest rates before September and have also scaled back their expectations about the number of rate cuts in 2024 to two amid still sticky inflation. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and helps revive the USD demand. That said, a generally positive risk tone might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the safe-haven buck and act as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair.

Investors might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week’s important US macro data, starting with Durable Goods Orders later during the North American session. Apart from this, the Advance US Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively, might provide fresh cues about the Fed’s rate cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair.


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