- WTI drifts lower on Monday amid concerns about slowing fuel demand.
- Geopolitical risks remain in play and should help limit any further losses.
- Traders now await this week’s central bank event risk and key macro data.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices kick off the new week on a weaker note and slide below the $83.00/barrel mark during the Asian session.
Against the backdrop of receding fears about a further escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, concerns that higher interest rates in the US will dent fuel demand in the world’s top consumer and exert some pressure on the black liquid. The worries were reaffirmed by weaker-than-expected US Q1 GDP growth figures released last week.
Furthermore, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released on Friday cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of the underlying bullish tone around the US Dollar (USD) and might continue to weigh on Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, Ukraine attacked more Russian oil refineries over the weekend. This comes after Russia announced more export and production cuts earlier this year, which, along with little signs of de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, keep supply risks in play and should help limit any meaningful downside for Crude Oil prices.
Market participants now look forward to Tuesday’s release of official PMI prints from China – the world’s top Oil importer – for a fresh impetus. The focus will then shift to the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday and important US macro data, including the NFP report, scheduled at the beginning of a new month.
Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets and positioning for a further intraday depreciating move in the absence of any relevant economic data from the US on Monday.
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