News & Analyses

XRP could see 10% rally but yet to sustain an uptrend momentum amid growing institutional demand


  • XRP has been relisted across several crypto exchanges since Judge Torres’s ruling in August.
  • The US Presidential election on Tuesday may be the deciding factor in the battle between Ripple and the Gensler administration.
  • XRP could see a 10% rally if it breaks above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle.

Ripple’s XRP is trading at $0.5050 up slightly by 0.2% in the past 24 hours as it struggles to sustain a move above a key symmetry triangle resistance. Meanwhile, in its recently released Q3 report, Ripple noted the rising listing and relisting of XRP across crypto exchanges and global platforms.

Ripple’s Q3 report highlights XRP key milestone

In its recently released Q3 report, Ripple noted that global platforms have increased their listing of XRP while other crypto exchanges that delisted it due to the Securities & Exchange Commission’s (SEC) battle with the firm have relisted the token.

The clarity from its battle with the SEC has also prompted institutional interest in the token, with three asset managers, including Bitwise, Canary and 21Shares, submit filings for an XRP ETF.

Judge Analisa Torres concluded the Ripple vs. SEC case by ordering the firm to pay a $125 million fine, which was far lower than the $2 billion the regulator requested. Judge Torres had earlier ruled that the sale of XRP on exchanges does not violate securities laws. However, the SEC appealed key parts of the Judge’s ruling, and Ripple immediately filed a cross-appeal.

Meanwhile, with the US presidential elections less than 24 hours away,  many crypto community members have expressed views that a pro-crypto government may see a new SEC administration which could lead to the termination of its appeal against Ripple.

Ripple technical analysis: XRP could rally by 10% if it breaks above upper triangle limit

Ripple’s XRP is trading close to the $0.5000 psychological level following a 0.2% rise in the past 24 hours.

XRP saw a rejection after testing the upper descending trendline of a symmetry triangle extending from October 21. If XRP sustains a daily candlestick close above this trendline, it could rally by nearly 10% to $0.5608.

XRP/USDT 4-hour chart

XRP/USDT 4-hour chart

However, if XRP maintains the decline from its rejection near this upper descending trendline, it could decline and retest the symmetry triangle’s ascending lower trendline support level. A move below this lower trendline could see XRP decline nearly 5% to $0.4860.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator are testing their respective midline and oversold region lines, indicating that a potential mild pullback is on the horizon.

A daily candlestick close below $0.4860 will invalidate the thesis.

SEC vs Ripple lawsuit FAQs

It depends on the transaction, according to a court ruling released on July 14, 2023: For institutional investors or over-the-counter sales, XRP is a security. For retail investors who bought the token via programmatic sales on exchanges, on-demand liquidity services and other platforms, XRP is not a security.

The United States Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Ripple and its executives of raising more than $1.3 billion through an unregistered asset offering of the XRP token. While the judge ruled that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, sales of XRP tokens to institutional investors are indeed investment contracts. In this last case, Ripple did breach the US securities law and had to pay a $125 million civil fine.

The ruling offers a partial win for both Ripple and the SEC, depending on what one looks at. Ripple gets a big win over the fact that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, and this could bode well for the broader crypto sector as most of the assets eyed by the SEC’s crackdown are handled by decentralized entities that sold their tokens mostly to retail investors via exchange platforms, experts say. Still, the ruling doesn’t help much to answer the key question of what makes a digital asset a security, so it isn’t clear yet if this lawsuit will set precedent for other open cases that affect dozens of digital assets. Topics such as which is the right degree of decentralization to avoid the “security” label or where to draw the line between institutional and programmatic sales persist.

The SEC has stepped up its enforcement actions toward the blockchain and digital assets industry, filing charges against platforms such as Coinbase or Binance for allegedly violating the US Securities law. The SEC claims that the majority of crypto assets are securities and thus subject to strict regulation. While defendants can use parts of Ripple’s ruling in their favor, the SEC can also find reasons in it to keep its current strategy of regulation by enforcement.




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